“Hold your horses” as EU budget is under siege

As time runs out for achieving an orderly Brexit, the EU is financially preparing for the worst.

In case of a no- deal Brexit, Britain will stop EU payments at the end of March immediately.

It emerged that the EU is already holding back payments to the UK and other EU member states. There is an official request to be very cautious as it comes to new spending.

As part of the rejected Brexit deal, the U.K. is expected to keep on with the EU payments until next Year as the current budget period end.

In the meantime it seems very unlikely that plan B, whatever it will be, is acceptable for neither the Members of Parliament nor the EU.

Staying in the customs union, to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, is unacceptable for most Brexiteers.

Compared with the present situation this will bring little change.

On the other hand, a return of the hard border will incur a substantial risk pushing the UK and Ireland back into civil war.

After Theresa Mays failure earlier this week to get the Brexit agreement through Parliament, the EU budget is now under siege.

To limit the impact of a sudden contribution stop by one of the biggest net-EU contributors, the European Commission stepped on the brakes and asked the staff to be very cautious with new spending.

An EU spokesman said: “Beneficiaries whose projects have already been signed will not be affected — all legal and contractual obligations will be honored. This precautionary measure only concerns new projects.”

A picture says a thousand words

Who is not happy with this president?

CNN (The Communist News Network) maybe.

The troops in Iraq and Germany were in a euphoric mood as the “one of a kind” President of the United States arrived for an unexpected visit during the Christmas holiday.

Image Source: VOA

World Economy is living on borrowed time

Time is ticking out for world’s economies.

Thanks to the dovish, reckless money creating central banks and politicians not doing a d… thing about it, the world’s debt is now exceeding an average of $86,000 for every individual living being on this planet. Based on the IMF Global Debt Database, this number far exceeds the value of realized output.

The United States, China and Japan are responsible for the biggest share in this killer debt. These countries are the top three global borrowers. This is more than half of the global debt.

The IMF stated that the appearance of China in this list is a bit of a surprise. Since 2000,  China’s share in global debt surged from less than 3 percent to more than 15 now. Emphasizing the rapid credit surge happened in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

According to the Monetary Fund, global debt has now reached a record high of $184 trillion in nominal terms. That’s the equivalent of 225 times the world GDP in 2017.

The latest figures show that the debt figure is currently $2 trillion higher as the estimated number released by the IMF last October. This could happen because in October several countries failed to report their debt status.

The world is now literally living on borrowed time. The recovery after the financial crisis is based on debt. Not on real achievements.

Therefore, it is not the question if, but when the next final collapse will occur. This time there will be no help from Governments to saved failed banks and business. The next crash will be devastation at an unseen scale with no helping hand.

The world economy is severely slowing down. Oil prices dropped significantly over the last few weeks. High Street shops are reporting the worst November sales ever. The Brexit chaos is leaving many in limbo about things to come. The government is a lame Duck. It increasingly emerges that the U.K. will crash out the E.U. and with the army already mobilized, for many people there is not much reason to be in an optimistic mood.

 

May can stay… for the moment, but still empty handed

The earlier mentioned no confidence vote took place on Wednesday December 12th, and the PM doesn’t have to leave Office.

But the position of Mrs. May is terribly weakened, opening the door for further humiliation by the EU.

Not much chance for getting the real deal. There is virtually no better deal. “This is the deal”, EU president Juncker repeatedly said.

And with the deadline of leaving the EU on March 29 2019 (11 PM)  in sight, for many foreigners over here, the trivial question is now: should we stay or should we go.

Everybody is in limbo about upcoming developments and the Home Office is behaving increasingly nasty.

Brexit tragedy unfolding, new referendum on the brink

Britain might be on the verge of a new referendum as Mrs. May fails to get a better deal with the EU.

To prevent a massive defeat in parliament, the long awaited Brexit vote for today has been cancelled. Instead of the crucial vote, the PM is now traveling around Europe to get a better deal. This round trip is ahead of an emergency meeting with EU leaders this Thursday.

The entire Brexit is an ongoing conundrum. An endless story with presumably no happy end. Amid a looming Brexit chaos there is a deep fear for shortages as the open borders will be closed. Hospitals began storing vital medicine just in case.

According to European Council President Donald Tusk and other EU premium lawmakers, the current deal is not subject to negotiations.

It is all about the free trade back stop regarding the border between British Northern Ireland and Ireland in case there is a “no deal” situation. The terms of this back stop, are not negotiable. Therefore, as long there is no deal, the entire U.K. theoretically will be tied to the European Union for an indefinite period of time.

In the meanwhile, the P.M. is fighting for her political life. It is almost unavoidable that sooner or later a no confidence vote will take place leaving England in big havoc.

A new referendum will be disastrous. Many Britons are fed up about the whole thing and it looks like a majority of referendum voters is now in favor of staying in the European Union.

 

 

 

 

Difficult times for our Prime Minister Theresa May

Political turmoil in Downingstreet.

A political insider here in London told me he believes the PM will be forced to leave office soon. A confidence vote to be held in a couple of days could lead to the exit of Mrs. May.

It’s now or never as events develop as we speak. The upcoming days will be decisive about the question whether it comes to a Brexit, something in between or not at all.

Brexiteers massively panned the draft agreement between the UK and EU. It looks like all those years of negotiating are going down the drain in an instance.

One of the possible outcomes of the governmental turmoil is that Brexit is DOA. Dead On Arrival.

Years of bad negotiations with Brussels led to an unacceptable draft agreement no leave voter can live with.

For the leave camp it is not bearable to maintain a customs union with the consequence a prolonged time under the legal dictatorship from Brussels.

This might be the last Swan Song for Mrs. May and the rest of the cabinet since EU leaders made clear that renegotiating the entire exit agreement is not possible.

That’s why Mr. Gove did not accept the invitation from the Prime Minister to be the new Brexit Secretary.

Now there is little room left to get something else on the table as alternative for the disaster agreement May proudly presented.

A readers poll from the Daily Express showed on Saturday that 86% disapprove and reject the plan. This shock result comes at the very moment the PM is fighting for her political life.

No mistaken about it. May failed to deliver. The draft agreement will tie the UK to the EU almost indefinitely.

Major concern has risen that the backstop mode in case of a no deal situation will leave Britain in the customs union for an unlimited, perpetual, period of time. The Government will amend it to keep Britain under Brussels rule in the customs union. This will prevent the chance for free trade deals with the rest of the world.

To be continued.