As time slips sliding away Europe’s ticking time bomb in Ukraine nears detonation.
In less than four weeks from now, the world might wake up again in another new reality. As the Covid- 19 hassle slowly but surely evaporates, the next challenge is on the horizon. Europe is premeditated heading into a far more devastating situation that could dominate reality in an instance.
And it is not only war with casualties and major damage alone what Europe is bracing for.
The European threat to Russia with economic sanctions and to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT bank network will undoubtedly cause a major counter reaction. An immediate shutdown of all Russian gas pipelines feeding the European network seems unavoidable.
A highly dangerous situation can develop in an instance as energy supplies will dry up leading to an unseen major disruption of normal life.
At this very moment Europe’s gas reserves are historically low. In January, gas in storage nosedived to an unprecedented near bottom position.
Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe tells that consumption from storage facilities is now one third above the average for the previous five years.
It is feared that further escalating tensions between the EU and Moscow will lead to a full supply disruption.
The EU receives about 40% of its gas through Russian transport lines. Several of the pipelines run through Ukraine. With North stream 2 (due to German legislation) still out of order Europe has all it needs to get into total mayhem.
Governments work feverish with international intelligence agencies (to keep the population calm) on scenario’s what can happen as hospitals, businesses and households are switched off from the natural gas and electricity supplies.
Long term outages can lead to hunger, economic destruction and uncontrollable unrest.
Intelligence sources warn for major and extended electricity outages disrupting basics as financial- and medical services. What might happen can’t be cured with a face mask or booster jab. This is something real serious.
Former US Army chief Lieutenant General (ret.) Ben Hodges warned that chances of getting into a full blown war are sky high. “There is an over 80 percent chance that the Russia-Ukraine row will lead Europe into an all-out war”
If this happens, it’s the third time Europe is plunging into chaos by a World war.
Russia deployed thousands of troops at the Ukraine border citing concerns about NATO expansion as explanation for the hostile stance.
The Ukraine government is worried that after Crimea’s annexation by Russia eight years ago, history will repeat it selves.
Despite Russia denies its aiming for occupation of the rest of Ukraine, former US Army in Europe chief Lt. Col. Ben Hodges warned chances that the current skirmish develop into a hot war stands around 80 percent at the moment.
Hodges believes that Germany must take the leading role in this. “The only way to avoid further escalation is if Germany and the rest of Europe are fully force-squared against what Russia is doing.
Germany is the key” Germany should show self-confidence and act right now.
It is likely that Vladimir Putin will wait with military action until the Beijing Winter Olympics are finished.
In 2014, Russia waited until the end of the Sochi Olympics before invading Ukraine for the first time.
That means no military action in Ukraine before the end of February.