Humans on Mars: In the very long run only
Almost unconquerable hurdles are in the way that make plans for a spaceflight to the red planet with humans aboard during at least the upcoming decades highly unlikely.
A manned space mission to Mars is with the current technology impossible.
We can’t even send Martian soil and rock samples, collected by rovers as the Perseverance, back to Earth.
Collected samples are currently stored on the planet awaiting improved space ship technology that doesn’t exist at the moment.
That does not mean it will not happen in the future. Plans for bringing Mars samples to Earth are still underway but it’s a complex and costly endeavor.
The timeline for bringing these samples to Earth is vague while insider scientists believe it will not happen earlier as after 2040.
NASA and other space agencies have already been working on the concept of a Mars rock and soil sample Return mission for years. So far in vain.
The Mars Sample Return Mission faces significant challenges, including high costs and technical complexities which, so far, led to delays and reevaluations of the original plan.
Bringing humans to Mars and back to Earth is even further in the distance. It’s highly unlikely that with the current technology humans can travel with an acceptable risk through the hostile space environment to reach the red planet.
Current technology is insufficient for a safe, human round-trip mission to Mars. While some critical systems exist, others like radiation protection, long-term life support, Mars landing systems, and return capability are still in development and unproven at mission scale level.
Nuclear thermal propulsion, artificial gravity systems and radiation protection are no further than in its early stages.
The most optimistic scenario is that the first humans arrive on Mars at earliest between 2040 and 2050. Assuming consistent investment and global commitment. The aim of SpaceX to realize a crewed Mars mission within a few years from now is completely unlikely without multiple miracle-level milestones.
Science needs a complete new approach about how to travel through space. This is not goanna happen with rockets still based on Apollo technology. Even not in decades.